<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><title>Twin Falls District - EdTribune ID - Idaho Education Data</title><description>Education data coverage for Twin Falls District. Data-driven education journalism for Idaho. Every number verified against state DOE data.</description><link>https://id.edtribune.com/</link><language>en-us</language><copyright>EdTribune 2026</copyright><item><title>One Network, Seven Campuses, 3,240 Students</title><link>https://id.edtribune.com/id/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://id.edtribune.com/id/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network/</guid><description>In 2017-18, a single charter school in Pocatello enrolled 143 students. By 2025-26, Gem Prep: Pocatello had become the anchor of a seven-campus network stretching from the Snake River Plain to the Tre...</description><pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;In 2017-18, a single charter school in Pocatello enrolled 143 students. By 2025-26, &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/gem-prep-pocatello&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gem Prep: Pocatello&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; had become the anchor of a seven-campus network stretching from the Snake River Plain to the Treasure Valley, enrolling 3,240 students across four cities and an online program. No other charter operator in Idaho has replicated across multiple locations. Gem Innovation Schools, the organization behind Gem Prep, is the state&apos;s first and only charter management organization.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That 2,166% growth over eight years occurred while the state&apos;s total enrollment grew just 3.8%. The four traditional districts where Gem Prep operates, &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/west-ada&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;West Ada&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/nampa-school-district&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Nampa&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/pocatello&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pocatello&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/twin-falls&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Twin Falls&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, collectively lost 4,748 students over the same period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;Gem Prep network growth from 143 students to 3,240 across seven campuses&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Meridian footprint&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Three of Gem Prep&apos;s seven campuses sit within or near West Ada School District&apos;s boundaries in Meridian, and they tell the most striking part of the network&apos;s story. The original Gem Prep: Meridian campus opened in 2018-19 with 269 students. Meridian North followed in 2021-22; Meridian South in 2022-23. Together, the three Meridian campuses now enroll 1,485 students, 45.8% of the entire network.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;West Ada, Idaho&apos;s largest district, peaked at 40,326 students in 2019-20 and has since lost 2,407, a 6.0% decline. Gem Prep is not the only factor. Birth rate trends, pandemic disruption, and private school options all contribute. But the Meridian cluster&apos;s growth, from zero to nearly 1,500 students in seven years, represents a visible shift in family choices in Idaho&apos;s fastest-growing metro area.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network-campuses.png&quot; alt=&quot;Stacked area chart showing campus-by-campus enrollment growth&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A dual-credit pitch in a choice-friendly state&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gem Prep&apos;s model centers on blended learning and early college credit. Students use computer-adaptive software alongside direct instruction, and by 11th and 12th grade they take dual-credit courses through the Idaho Digital Learning Alliance at no cost to families.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Our goal would be that anyone who wants a Gem Prep education has access to a Gem Prep education, regardless of what part of the state you live in, regardless of your family dynamics.&quot;
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.jkaf.org/stories/gem-prep-excellence-in-education-made-accessible-anywhere-in-idaho/&quot;&gt;Dr. Jason Bransford, Gem Prep CEO, J.A. and Kathryn Albertson Family Foundation&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The network &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.jkaf.org/stories/gem-prep-excellence-in-education-made-accessible-anywhere-in-idaho/&quot;&gt;reports&lt;/a&gt; that 50% of its 2023 graduates earned an associate&apos;s degree alongside their high school diploma, with the average graduate accumulating 46 college credits and $36,000 in scholarship offers. Those figures come from the network itself and have not been independently audited, but they illustrate the value proposition that has filled seven campuses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The state&apos;s political environment has been hospitable. Idaho &lt;a href=&quot;https://blog.idahoreports.idahoptv.org/2025/02/27/gov-little-signs-private-school-tax-credit-into-law/&quot;&gt;enacted a $5,000 per-student private school tax credit&lt;/a&gt; in February 2025 (HB 93), capped at $50 million annually, signaling legislative appetite for school choice broadly. Charters, as public schools, do not need tax credits to attract families. But they operate in a market where the legislature has made clear it views parental choice as policy priority.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Where the growth came from, and where it stalled&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gem Prep&apos;s expansion has followed a recognizable pattern: open a new campus, fill it to roughly 400-500 students over three to four years, then open another. The Nampa campus opened in 2018-19 at 363 students and now enrolls 523. Twin Falls, the newest brick-and-mortar location, opened in 2023-24 at 165 and reached 412 in just two years, a 149.7% increase.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the founding Pocatello campus is showing strain. After peaking at 476 students in 2024-25, it dropped 70 students (14.7%) in 2025-26 to 406, its lowest enrollment since 2020-21. Whether this reflects local market saturation, the departure of a long-tenured principal to lead the upcoming Idaho Falls campus, or simply a cohort fluctuation is unclear from enrollment data alone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year enrollment changes showing growth deceleration&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The network&apos;s total growth is also decelerating. Gem Prep added 655 students in 2023-24, driven largely by Meridian South and Twin Falls opening or ramping up. In 2024-25, growth slowed to 240. In 2025-26, just 100. Without a new campus opening, existing locations appear to be approaching capacity. An &lt;a href=&quot;https://localnews8.com/news/2025/09/24/gem-prep-breaks-ground-in-idaho-falls-brings-idaho-campus-total-to-eight/&quot;&gt;Idaho Falls campus broke ground in September 2025&lt;/a&gt; for a fall 2026 opening, and the network has &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.eastidahonews.com/2025/05/gem-prep-announces-new-school-location-in-i-f-after-abandoning-ammon-location/&quot;&gt;announced plans for a Rexburg location&lt;/a&gt; in 2027.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;One operator, one-eighth of the sector&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gem Prep now enrolls 3,240 of Idaho&apos;s roughly 26,200 charter students, about 12.4%, making it the largest brick-and-mortar charter operator in the state. (Idaho Home Learning Academy, a virtual charter, enrolls 7,504 students but is a single-site operation.) Idaho&apos;s data system does not flag Gem Prep as a charter because the name lacks the word &quot;charter,&quot; so official charter counts understate the sector. Including Gem Prep, charters serve about 8.3% of Idaho&apos;s 314,097 students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That concentration rose quickly. Gem Prep was a single campus with 143 students in 2018. By 2024, the network enrolled 19.1% of the state&apos;s name-flagged charter students. The Idaho Home Learning Academy charter split from Oneida County District in 2025, expanding the charter enrollment denominator and moderating the share.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network-share.png&quot; alt=&quot;Gem Prep&apos;s share of total Idaho charter enrollment&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Idaho&apos;s charter sector has grown from 5 schools enrolling 674 students in 2002 to at least 39 charter entities enrolling over 26,000 in 2026. The count of name-flagged charters has held steady at 32 since 2024, suggesting growth is coming from existing schools expanding rather than new operators entering.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The divergence question&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The sharpest tension in the Gem Prep story is this: every traditional district where the network operates has shrunk since 2020, while Gem Prep grew by 1,784 students over the same period. West Ada lost 2,407 students. Nampa lost 1,566. Pocatello lost 1,068. Twin Falls lost 846.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2026-02-20-id-gem-prep-network-divergence.png&quot; alt=&quot;Enrollment change comparison between Gem Prep and host districts&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It would be an oversimplification to attribute all of those losses to charter competition. Statewide enrollment fell by 1.2% in 2025-26 alone, driven by demographic trends that predate charter expansion. But in Meridian specifically, where three Gem Prep campuses now enroll nearly 1,500 students in a district that has lost 2,407 since its peak, charter growth is clearly part of the enrollment equation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;[Idaho charter schools] squashed fears, filled needs and created alternatives.&quot;
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/idahos-charter-school-movement-squashed-fears-filled-needs-and-created-alternatives/&quot;&gt;Idaho Ed News, December 2023&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One dynamic that enrollment data cannot measure: whether families choosing Gem Prep would otherwise attend their neighborhood school or would have left the public system entirely for homeschooling or private options. Idaho&apos;s charter &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/news/charter-school-demand-continues-to-outpace-charter-growth/&quot;&gt;waiting lists exceeded 10,700 students in 2023-24&lt;/a&gt;, with roughly three-quarters of schools reporting. Demand appears to outstrip supply, but the data does not reveal how many of those waitlisted families end up in the traditional district versus opting out altogether.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The pipeline narrows at the top&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gem Prep&apos;s grade-level structure reveals a network still growing into its K-12 model. In 2025-26, K-5 enrollment totals 1,826 students. Grades 6-8 enroll 933. But the high school grades, 9-12, enroll just 481, with only 89 seniors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That top-heavy elementary profile is partly by design: most campuses opened as K-6 or K-8 programs and are adding upper grades incrementally. But it also means the dual-credit promise that anchors Gem Prep&apos;s pitch reaches a relatively small number of students so far. As current elementary cohorts age into high school, the network&apos;s high school enrollment should grow substantially without new campuses, provided retention holds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Campus eight breaks ground&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In September 2025, construction began on Gem Prep&apos;s Idaho Falls campus, scheduled to open in fall 2026. A Rexburg location is planned for 2027. The Idaho Falls market is different from the Treasure Valley: smaller, more concentrated, and anchored by Idaho National Laboratory&apos;s workforce. Idaho Falls School District enrolled 9,751 students. Bonneville Joint enrolled 13,511. Together they form a metro area one-fifth the size of the West Ada market where three Gem Prep campuses already operate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Pocatello founding campus, meanwhile, dropped 70 students in 2025-26, its steepest loss. Whether the original location is saturated or simply cycling through a weak cohort will become clearer as the network&apos;s attention shifts east. Gem Prep added just 100 students statewide this year, its slowest growth ever. Eight campuses and 3,240 students later, the startup phase is over. What follows will depend on whether the model travels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>Idaho&apos;s Growth Era Is Over</title><link>https://id.edtribune.com/id/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://id.edtribune.com/id/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends/</guid><description>For 18 consecutive years, Idaho&apos;s public schools grew. Every fall from 2003 through 2020, more students showed up than the year before. The state added 65,807 students during that stretch, a 26.7% exp...</description><pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;For 18 consecutive years, Idaho&apos;s public schools grew. Every fall from 2003 through 2020, more students showed up than the year before. The state added 65,807 students during that stretch, a 26.7% expansion that mirrored Idaho&apos;s reputation as one of the fastest-growing states in the country. That era is over.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Idaho&apos;s K-12 enrollment fell to 314,097 in 2025-26, a decline of 3,970 students from the prior year. It is the steepest single-year drop in the 25 years of data available, nearly triple the size of the COVID-era loss in 2020-21 and 6.7 times larger than the decline recorded just one year earlier. Enrollment has now fallen in three consecutive years since peaking at 318,979 in 2022-23, erasing 4,882 students, or 1.5% of the peak total.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;Idaho enrollment, 2002-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The acceleration no one planned for&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The pattern of the last three years is not gradual. It is accelerating. In 2023-24, Idaho lost 319 students, a rounding error that could be dismissed as a plateau. In 2024-25, the loss grew to 593. In 2025-26, it exploded to 3,970, a 1.25% decline that dwarfs anything in the dataset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During Idaho&apos;s growth era, the state averaged 3,563 new students per year from 2003 to 2012, and 3,772 per year from 2013 to 2020. The post-pandemic reversal has averaged a loss of 1,627 students per year over the last three years. For budget officers accustomed to planning around growth, this is not a minor adjustment. It is a structural break.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Annual enrollment change, 2003-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two-thirds of Idaho&apos;s 192 districts and charter schools lost enrollment in 2025-26, the highest share in the dataset. In the post-COVID rebound year of 2021-22, only 29.4% of districts declined. Just four years later, 65.8% are shrinking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends-winloss.png&quot; alt=&quot;Share of districts declining each year&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Boise at an all-time low&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The decline is concentrated at the top. The 10 districts that lost the most students in 2025-26 accounted for 75% of the statewide loss. The five largest losers alone represented half.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/west-ada&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;West Ada District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, Idaho&apos;s largest, lost 538 students in 2025-26 and 1,238 since the 2023 peak, a 3.2% decline. &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/boise-independent&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Boise Independent District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, the second-largest, is at an all-time low of 21,717 students after losing 1,168 from its peak, a 5.1% drop. &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/nampa&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Nampa School District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has shed 945 students since 2023, a 7.0% decline. &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/pocatello&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pocatello District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has lost 896, or 7.3%. &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/twin-falls&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Twin Falls District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; is down 588, or 6.3%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In all, 38 districts hit all-time lows in 2025-26, including three of the state&apos;s five largest. Thirty-five districts reached all-time highs, but most of those are small charter schools and rural districts where a handful of students can set a record.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends-districts.png&quot; alt=&quot;District enrollment change since 2023 peak&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one standout among large districts is &lt;a href=&quot;/id/districts/vallivue&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Vallivue School District&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; in Caldwell, which added 807 students since 2023, an 8.2% gain. Vallivue&apos;s growth aligns with Canyon County&apos;s status as a more affordable alternative to Ada County (Boise). But Vallivue is the exception. Eight of the ten largest traditional districts have declined since the peak.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Fewer kindergarteners, more seniors&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The clearest signal that Idaho&apos;s decline is structural, not cyclical, comes from the grade-level pipeline. In 2002, Idaho enrolled roughly equal numbers of kindergarteners and 12th graders: 17,844 and 17,622. For 15 years, kindergarten outpaced Grade 12, a sign that more students were entering the system than leaving it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That relationship inverted in 2018. Grade 12 enrollment surpassed kindergarten and has stayed ahead every year since. In 2025-26, the gap reached its widest point: 25,316 seniors versus 20,184 kindergarteners, a difference of 5,132 students. The K-to-G12 ratio has fallen to 0.80, meaning for every five seniors graduating out of Idaho schools, only four kindergarteners are entering.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/id/img/2025-12-19-id-growth-era-ends-pipeline.png&quot; alt=&quot;K vs Grade 12 pipeline, 2002-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kindergarten peaked at 22,537 in 2012-13 and has fallen 10.4% since. Grade 12, by contrast, is at its highest point ever. Those 12th graders were born in 2007-08, the peak years for Idaho births. Every graduating class after this one will come from smaller birth cohorts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A growing state that produces fewer students&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Idaho&apos;s population has grown faster than nearly every other state&apos;s, expanding 21.5% from 2012 to 2022 and &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/news/2025-07-23/census-data-net-migration-population-growth-idaho&quot;&gt;surpassing two million residents in 2024&lt;/a&gt;. The paradox is that almost none of that growth translated into school enrollment. According to an &lt;a href=&quot;https://idahoatwork.com/2023/08/31/how-idahos-birth-rates-shifting-population-affect-school-enrollments/&quot;&gt;analysis by Idaho@Work&lt;/a&gt;, 90% of Idaho&apos;s population growth from 2019 to 2022 came from adults over age 18. The state&apos;s population rose 45% from 2002 to 2022. Births rose just 7% over the same period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The birth rate tells the story most directly. Idaho recorded &lt;a href=&quot;https://idahoatwork.com/2023/08/31/how-idahos-birth-rates-shifting-population-affect-school-enrollments/&quot;&gt;more than 25,000 births in both 2007 and 2008&lt;/a&gt;, its highest levels on record. By 2021, the rate had fallen to 11.8 per 1,000, a 29% decline from the 2007 peak of 16.6. That generation of 25,000-birth cohorts is now aging out of K-12, and the smaller cohorts behind them are what kindergarten classrooms are seeing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Housing costs compound the demographic squeeze. State Superintendent Debbie Critchfield told &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/k-12-public-school-enrollment-trending-down-for-second-consecutive-year/&quot;&gt;Idaho EdNews&lt;/a&gt; that rising costs &quot;have made it harder for young families to stay or settle in Idaho, which contributes to smaller kindergarten cohorts.&quot; Ada County median home prices hover around $535,000. The newcomers driving Idaho&apos;s population boom are disproportionately retirees and remote workers, not families with school-age children.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;We know enrollment directly impacts state funding.&quot;
— Superintendent Debbie Critchfield, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/k-12-public-school-enrollment-trending-down-for-second-consecutive-year/&quot;&gt;Idaho EdNews, November 2025&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The funding formula amplifies the pain&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Enrollment decline arrives at a particularly bad time for Idaho districts. The state&apos;s funding formula, which ties school budgets to average daily attendance rather than enrollment, means districts lose money twice: once from fewer students, and again from the gap between enrollment and attendance. Statewide, attendance averages about 92-93% of enrollment. Districts get funded on the lower number.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When the Legislature and State Board of Education &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/k-12-schools-could-see-162-million-in-cuts-from-attendance-based-formula/&quot;&gt;allowed a pandemic-era enrollment-based funding rule to expire&lt;/a&gt;, the shift back to attendance-based funding cost districts an estimated $162 million. Quinn Perry of the Idaho School Boards Association warned of the impact:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;We knew and made our best attempts to warn state leaders that shifting back to attendance would bring a dramatic drop in how state funding is distributed, but it&apos;s quite distressing to see the difference.&quot;
— Quinn Perry, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idahoednews.org/top-news/k-12-schools-could-see-162-million-in-cuts-from-attendance-based-formula/&quot;&gt;Idaho EdNews, January 2024&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most of Idaho&apos;s districts face losses under the attendance formula. Only about 50 smaller districts benefit from attendance-based funding. For a district like Boise, already at an all-time enrollment low, the combination of fewer students and a funding formula that discounts those who remain is a compounding fiscal problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A state that stopped building for growth&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Board of Education&apos;s &lt;a href=&quot;https://boardofed.idaho.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Demographic-Projections-Final-B-van-Doorn-June-2024.pdf&quot;&gt;2024 demographic projections&lt;/a&gt; suggested no enrollment cliff was imminent, noting that migration could offset falling birth rates. The 2025-26 data challenges that optimism. The 3,970-student loss in a single year exceeds what the projections anticipated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Nampa closed four elementary schools in the summer of 2024. Boise cut 27 positions. Coeur d&apos;Alene is weighing budget reductions. These are not districts that planned for contraction. They budgeted for a growth state, and for 18 years the growth came. It stopped coming, and the infrastructure built for 319,000 students now serves 314,000, with a kindergarten pipeline that keeps narrowing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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